It’s always humorous reading past stories of mine and seeing how wrong I was. Last week, I made the rule to never take the under in games that involve the Chargers.

Welp, I need a new rule because the Chargers and Vikings fell 2.5 points shy of last week’s total line of 54.5. Thanks to linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. picking off Kirk Cousins in the end zone to seal the Chargers’ 28–24 victory, I had to eat my words.

But I wasn’t wrong about all my over/under total bets last week. I had a decent day with a 3–2 record—shoutout to the Dolphins for not making me sweat about the over bet in their game thanks to the 70-point outburst they had vs. the Broncos.

But three out of five winning bets aren’t enough. The same way Chandler Bing feels about gum, I’m here for perfection!

​​Here are the five best over/under bets for NFL Week 4 (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook). 

1. Steelers at Texans

Melina Myers/USA TODAY Sports

With how impressive C.J. Stroud has played the past two weeks, the Texans can certainly score at least 20 points at home against a tough Steelers defense. The Texans dropped 37 points in the upset win over the Jaguars last week and have surpassed more than 350 passing yards in the past two games, including in the Week 2 loss against the Colts. I’m not as high on Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett, who has struggled through three games, but he’ll face a Texans’ defense that allowed 404 total yards to the Jaguars. Houston, however, contained Jacksonville for 17 points, but allowed 25 points to Baltimore in the season opener and 31 to Indianapolis in Week 2. This total line seems a bit low for this game. Bettors should take advantage. 

2. Rams at Colts

The Rams delivered an offensive dud against the Bengals in a game they desperately missed wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who remains on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Now the Rams, who have a roster filled with inexperienced players, have to go back on the road to face a rugged Colts squad that can run the ball with running back Zack Moss. Indianapolis has also been impressive on the defensive side after containing the Ravens in last week’s 22–19 overtime victory. If Anthony Richardson is cleared from the concussion protocol, perhaps the Colts score a bit more than they have the past two weeks, but the Rams’ defense had a standout showing vs. the Bengals. Also, this game will probably come down to the team that wins the time of possession battle. Those types of games tend to be low scoring. 

3. Dolphins at Bills

This was a tough decision because this game could easily turn into a shootout with both teams surpassing 30 points. But these teams know each other well as AFC East rivals, possibly leading to a chess match between Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel and Bills coach Sean McDermott. The Bills likely don’t want to get into a track meet with the Dolphins and could slow down the game with longer drives and a run-heavy approach. This would also allow the Bills’ defense more time to rest on the sidelines while attempting to contain Tua Tagovailoa and has many speedy weapons. Buffalo hasn’t allowed more than 10 points the past two games and probably would have kept the Jets under 20 points in the season opener if the special teams hadn’t allowed a game-winning punt return touchdown. Many points will be scored in this matchup, but it might end up being a 27–24 game in favor of the more physical team. 

4. Cardinals at 49ers

Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports

I’ve been impressed with how competitive the Cardinals have been through three games, but this is more about betting on the 49ers to continue their trend of scoring another 30 points, which they’ve done in every game this season. If that’s the case, the Cardinals just need to score a few touchdowns against possibly the best team in the NFL. But I should give the Cardinals a lot more credit. Last week, they proved me wrong after I embarrassed myself by predicting the Cowboys would jump to an early lead and shut down the Cardinals’ offense for the under bet to prevail. That, of course, didn’t occur after Arizona defeated Dallas, 28–16. It’s tough seeing the Cardinals having that type of success against the 49ers, but I’m counting on them to score points this week. 

5. Chiefs at Jets

Here I’m taking another over bet with a dominant offense playing against a heavy underdog. I’m not as confident in the Jets scoring a few touchdowns as I am with the Cardinals, but this line is three points lower. Last week, the Chiefs reached 41 points by the third quarter against the Bears, and probably would have topped 50 points had they not sat Patrick Mahomes for the final quarter. Expect another prolific offensive performance from Kansas City, despite playing against a standout Jets’ defense. It must be a mental burden for the Jets’ defense knowing that they need perfection just to have a chance in games with an underwhelming offense that’s being quarterbacked by Zach Wilson. Expect the Chiefs to jump to a massive lead before the Jets do their part in garbage time for the over bet to hit. 

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