The latest abc27/Emerson College/The Hill poll found Shapiro leading by nine points, 50.4% to Mastriano’s 41.2% with 4.8% undecided. Candidates for the Libertarian and Green parties each received 1.5% and the Keystone Party received 0.2%.
Fifty-six percent of undecided voters said they leaned toward Shapiro in the November 8 election. Four percent more Republicans said they would support Shapiro than Democrats who said they’ll vote for Mastriano.
Shapiro’s support in this latest Emerson poll shows a 3% upswing after he received 47% in the August poll. Support for Mastriano dropped 3% compared to the previous poll.
Shapiro had overwhelming support from minority voters in the November 3 poll, specifically African-Americans with a 61% lead over Mastriano. Voters with a college degree or higher also favored Shapiro by double digits.
While support for Mastriano and Shapiro was within the margin of error for voters 50 and older, Shapiro had twice as much support among the 18-34 demographic.
Female voters favored Shapiro by 13%, while male voters favored him by 3%. All 10 voters surveyed who identified as non-binary or other supported Shapiro.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “About 9% of those voting for Shaprio for Governor split their ticket and plan to support Oz for Senate. Women voters break for Fetterman by a four-point margin, and for Shapiro by a wider 13-point margin. By contrast, men break for Oz by 10 points, and for Shapiro by three.”
President Biden has a 39% approval rating with 56% disapproving of his job performance. The economy is the top issue facing Pennsylvania voters at 51%, followed by threats to democracy at 14% and abortion access at 9%.
The Emerson College Polling survey of Pennsylvania voters was conducted October 28-31, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.