(WHTM) – The Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race between Dr. Mehmet Oz and Lt. Governor John Fetterman is a toss-up, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight 2022 election forecast model.

The model, which simulated the election 40,000 times, showed Fetterman with a 51% chance of winning the race to Oz’s 49%.

Oz’s chances of winning have dropped, according to the model, after he started with a 65% chance to win on June 1. The Republican’s chances of winning the race dropped to 53% on June 17 and on June 22 Fetterman led with a 53% chance of winning.

The flip to Fetterman came after three polls released in mid-June showed him with a 4-9% lead despite recovering from a stroke suffered days before the Democratic primary on May 17.

The strongest Oz win in the model had the former television doctor winning with 61.5% while Fetterman’s biggest win was with 58.9%.

Eighty percent of model outcomes showed a Fetterman win of within 0.3% over Oz, which would trigger an automatic recount as voters learned in the Republican primary race.

FiveThirtyEight’s model showed the race for the control of the U.S. Senate is also a toss up with Republicans winning control 54% of the time.