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Stormteam Forecast

Thursday will be a generally cloudy day over the Southern Tier with occasional showers. Expect a cool day with high temperatures within a few degrees of 50 this afternoon.

Here are the weather headlines:

• Storm off the Atlantic coast is developing.
• The storm will send waves or rain inland, as far west as the Southern Tier.
• The coastal system departs Friday night but a new system brings additional showers over the weekend.
• Colder weather will return for a day on Sunday.

A deep storm (low pressure down at the ground and aloft) is just off the coast of New Jersey Thursday morning. It’s becoming ‘cut-off’ from the rest of the westerly winds in the upper atmosphere which means that it will be slow to move. In fact, it is forecast to take a slow drift to the north to be near Cape Cod Thursday night.

The storm will strengthen as it tracks over the unusually warm water of the northwest Atlantic Ocean.

These kinds of systems are notorious for pumping moisture from off the Atlantic inland over the Southern Tier. In fact, if you look at radar animations you can see our rain approaching from the northeast, around the coastal storm. The Southern Tier will be on the fringe of this rain throughout the day. Your chances for rain will decrease as you head west of Binghamton.

As mentioned, because this storm is isolated from stronger steering currents in the upper atmosphere, it will be slow to move. Finally though, on Friday, another system coming at us from southern Canada will nudge the coastal storm out to sea. We may get some breaks in the cloud cover and damp weather Friday afternoon.

Unfortunately, for the weekend, that Canadian system coming at us will be a significant player in our weekend weather. It will dive southeast over the Great Lakes Saturday, probably producing scattered showers Saturday, and then as it passes to our east Sunday, colder weather will return for Sunday afternoon.

The air Sunday may be cold enough for a few lake effect rain, or higher elevation snow showers.

Despite all of the above, warmer weather is still on tap for the first part of next week. Southerly winds in particular Tuesday will boost our temperatures above normal as we flirt with 70 degrees.

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