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Stormteam Forecast

It will be warm and windy day Monday across the Southern Tier. Temperatures will soar into the 60s as winds gust past 30 mph. There will also be a few scattered showers from time to time.

Here are the weather headlines:

• Besides a few isolated showers, much of Monday will be dry.
• Highs in the mid 60s on Monday.
• Cooler weather will return after Monday. Have to watch out for a storm riding up the eastern seaboard Wednesday night.
• Over Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving weekend, there is a chance for some unsettled weather in the form of snow.

Some much warmer air is on the move towards the Southern Tier to start the new work week. On the leading edge of this warm air is a warm front. The warm front caused a widespread rain Sunday night as it approached us. That steady rain already long gone and the warm front is pushing through the region.

During the afternoon Monday we will be in what’s called the warm sector (the area between a warm and cold front where the air is the warmest). Very strong southwesterly winds will send our temperatures soaring well into the 60s. In fact, we could give the record high for Monday a run for its Monday. (63° set back in 1979). Winds could gust as high as 40 mph in some locations,.

Much of the afternoon Monday looks like it will be on the dry side, outside of a few isolated showers. The chance for showers increases again Monday night into Tuesday when the cold front slides across New York.

This is the start of the gradual cool down for the rest of the week. Temperatures will start in the 40s on Tuesday and steadily fall into the 30s by Thanksgiving weekend.

Mid-Week Storm Travel Impact:

The past couple of days, our weather computer models have been suggesting that a storm will track out of the Pacific Northwest, south and west to the Gulf, and then north and east up the east coast Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, which unfortunately is typically the busiest travel time of the year for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The European and American models haven’t been seeing-eye-to-eye with the intensity, and placement of this low other than tracking something up the Eastern seaboard.

The European model is tracking the low closer to the coast, which brings the area of impact farther inland, including the Southern Tier and Northeast Pennsylvania. This would mean a better chance of some accumulating snowfall in the area.

The American model (the GFS) has been farther east of the European model the last couple of days. The latest run of the model last night, however, shifted the low farther west implying we get at least some snow.

While the change in the models last night increases are confidence it getting SOME snow later Wednesday into Wednesday night, it is still too far away to nail down any specifics. That being said, there are now Winter Storm Watches in effect for the Catskills and Poconos. If you do have travel plans to anywhere along the East Coast, the chances are fairly decent to have some sort of impact from this storm.

Be sure to check back for updates.

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